Presidential reelection campaigns are always about the incumbent — serving as a referendum of that President’s performance in office and the results of their policies. It’s a choice election. It’s not about the challenger. What the incumbent tries to do is to make the other “choice” unacceptable, resulting in the incumbent’s reelection.
I suspect the 2012 campaign will be waged on only two issues: the economy and a referendum on ObamaCare. Consider that, as Virginia Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli has already predicted, the Supreme Court will likely announce their decision on the constitutionality of Obama’s sweeping health care law on the last Monday in June next year. Such a time frame will likely be after the GOP nominee has been chosen but before the national party conventions, during the summer when the presidential general election campaign is not yet being waged ferociously.
No matter what decision is rendered, ObamaCare is guaranteed to burn white hot as an issue on the campaign trail in 2012.
Only after the 2012 election, if Barack Obama does win a second term as president, we will we know for sure if he was successful tactically.
However, his ultimate success or failure can be foretold by four discrete statistics — and the first two directly impact the second two.
By Labor Day of 2012, President Obama will have to play the cards he has dealt on the national unemployment rate and on the price of a gallon of gas.
Both subjects present tangible, simple numbers that have a direct impact on Americans personally and psychologically. Labor Day is the timeframe when, after summer vacations are over and children return to school, parents (likely voters) begin paying greater attention to the candidates. That’s when opinions firm up, information takes hold, and impressions become difficult to change.
If, as is not just possible, but even likely, President Obama is dealt a hand that has unemployment over 8 percent and the price of gasoline at $3 a gallon, Americans are likely to view their own economic future pessimistically and give the other candidate, if acceptable to the broad middle, a chance to run the country.
No incumbent president since FDR has won reelection with unemployment over 7.2 percent and today unemployment is 9.2 percent, as today’s dismal jobs report indicated. Gas prices were $1.68 when Obama took over, and today the national average is $3.67, more than double.
While some statistics lie, these don’t.
Those two statistics will directly impact the so-called “Right Track, Wrong Track” number, which indicates what Americans believe about the direction the country is headed. Economic opportunity is political destiny. If unemployment and gas prices are high, the wrong track number will be the majority view, as it is today. A recent poll released by the non-profit Let Freedom Ring, for whom, in full disclosure, I have consulted, pegged the wrong track number at 60 percent in a 1,000 personal national survey in mid-June.
Add up gas prices, national unemployment, and the wrong track number and blend them together — you will get the reelect number. If an incumbent, whether running for State Representative, Congress or President is under 50 percent for reelection, the overwhelming majority of the time they lose.
Incumbents don’t win undecided voters at the end because the voters already know them and have made up their mind. A known candidate they don’t yet support is less appealing than an unknown candidate they just might like better.
As former Texas Senator Phil Gramm once said, “The only vote you can count on is when they say, ‘I will not vote for you.’” Negativity drives voter action and when incumbents are polling below 50 percent in their reelection, there’s a lot of negativity about them.
Currently, President Obama is an even shot for reelection. At this point, it could go either way.
But I suspect we will know by Labor Day 2012 where this is headed. While some politicians might lie, the numbers and history, don’t.
The MSM & old establishment media types are trying desperately to get Americans to believe Obama is a terrific guy who is dealing with an intransigent Republican party & its ultra right wing radical group, the Tea party. The stories are endless & they tirelessly point out how OBama had to overcome obstacles no other human being ever faced. This is of course, pure bull. Many presidents have faced all sorts of major obstacles. But Obama & his excuse machine are working to get Americans to believe only Obama could stand up to this challenge & lead us to a new prosperity. The capitalists are evil, It is true pure capitalism is not the answer. But Obama’s socialism is also not the answer. In fact, it would lead to the end of this nation & Obama knows that. In fact, that really is his ultimate goal as he actually believes his idea’s for America are better under the socialist state operation he & his liberal allies plan. Socialism is soft communism. And in the end, each state that goes that way, ends up with a dictatorship or authoritarian type government. And the downtrodden never get a better deal. Only with a free market will average people have a chance to improve their lot. History proves this.
I say, all the unconstitutional stuff will go against him & you can bet there will be a great effort to make sure the people know about it, while the MSM & other liberals will be doing all they can to keep the public from finding out!
This is why the Justice Dept & every old MSM outfit is attacking Murdoch & Fox news now. They need them to be discredited or Fox will let people know enough truth that they will abandon Obama. At least I pray for that!
I think he has something up his sleeve to pull at the last minute because he will not relinquish power without a fight and I say he will not relinquish power period. No matter what the polls say this will be beyond a doubt the dirtiest campaign we have ever seen and probably ever will see.
That is exactly why impeachment (justfully deserved) is a better option. Unfortunitely, most of Washington is corrupt and should as well be impeached. And Obama knows it.
that why winnig both houses is imperative,if he somehow wins again we have to have both houses to keep damages to a minimun.I just dont see how anyone could vote for him again,even the dems i know cant stand him.
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Obama wants desperately to continue his destruction of this country; if you have any doubt, just look at all of his actions to date, and how they don’t make any sense, unless you consider that he wants to destroy the country, and turn it into a socialist government utopia. That being said, there were be massive voter fraud, and he already knows how to implement it, i.e., Acorn, etc.
Anything short of a new president will send us further down the hole. If he gets re-elected and both houses are Republican held, it will be a stalemate for another four years and we will be looking at Obamacare to turn our medical system into the United Union States of America. You know what this means, unions want more to do less. Our medical premiums will rise and the amount of services you get for that dollar will be less, or worse yet, non-existant. VOTE THEM ALL OUT IN 2012