Obama’s 2012 Chances Slipping Away with Two Key Democratic Groups

by Kevin “Coach” Collins

The results of a USAToday/Gallup survey of thousands of registered voters in Barack Obama’s twelve must-have states presents bad news for him and his party. However, true to form for the Democrat-boosting media, the worst of the news was buried. Initial online versions left out critical portions of the story, and the truth was only available in the newsstand version of the article.

The survey showed Republicans are more engaged in following the issues of next year’s election than Democrats by a stunning 20 points (68 percent to 48 percent).

As new party registration data underscore, voters are turning away from the Democrats in these swing states.  Since 2008, those identifying as Democrats has shrunk by four points, and those declaring themselves  Republicans has risen five points. Even if everything else were equal, this factor alone could spell doom or Obama.

Nevertheless, the really bad news is the level of enthusiasm being expressed by various voting groups towards next year’s election. This “enthusiasm index” is toxic for Obama. Each year since 2006, including this past November’s handful of local elections, the enthusiasm index has pointed to the eventual electoral outcomes.

Among 18-to-34 year-olds just 32 percent are enthused about voting (50 percent voted in 2008, two-thirds of them for Obama).

The worst news was among “non-whites” (read: blacks), which stood at only 31 percent. Black enthusiasm is 34 points under its 2008 level, less than half of the 65 percent enthusiasm level black voters showed when 97 percent voted for Obama.

Republican seniors, who are the most conservative voting bloc, (and double the size of the liberal voting bloc) are the most enthusiastic voting group.

The lack of enthusiasm among these two groups presents a difficult, if not impossible, obstacle for Obama to overcome. In the case of blacks, Barack Obama can go into high gear on the campaign trail, but improving their enthusiasm to vote by 34 points? Turning that gap around in 10 months will not be possible.

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This article originally appeared on CoachIsRight.com and is reprinted with permission.

About Kevin "Coach" Collins

Dr. Kevin “Coach” Collins, a member of American Mensa and the Sons of the American Revolution, holds a doctoral degree in Public Administration from Nova Southeastern University, and brings a unique background to his endeavors. He is a Viet Nam era Marine and a retired NYPD Honor Legion street cop, who was assigned to many sensitive positions during his time with the Department. He blogs at http://www.coachisright.com
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4 Responses to Obama’s 2012 Chances Slipping Away with Two Key Democratic Groups

  1. viking says:

    It there is any third party running obama will win. Paul, Trump don`t even think about it.

  2. Pingback: Black and Young Voters Lose Enthusiasm for Obama | Fellowship of the Minds

  3. Old Dog says:

    Based on the numbers, trends, and the results of the last Congressional elections, this actually maybe the first time an Independent or Third Party candidate has a reasonable chance. In this coming election, in my opinion, most votes will be cast for the Candidate, rather than for the Party. We will vote for who we TRUST, who we think will keep their word, and we have had way too many, in office and in campaigns, who have shown that they DO NOT. Neither party has a really good record at this point.

  4. TaterSalad says:

    Here is the list of identified Communists that are or have recently been in the United States Government:


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